Forecast

Comparing empirical and survey-based yield forecasts in a dryland agro-ecosystem

Accurate crop yield forecasts before harvest are crucial for providing early warning of agricultural losses, so that policy-makers can take steps to minimize hunger risk. Within-season surveys of farmers’ end-of-season harvest expectations are one …

Forecasting the Hydroclimatic Signature of the 2015/16 El Niño Event on the Western United States

Dry conditions in 2013–16 in much of the western United States were responsible for severe drought and led to an exceptional fire season in the Pacific Northwest in 2015. Winter 2015/16 was forecasted to relieve drought in the southern portion of the …